On Wednesday I published the mid week read: bullish week, Wednesday's high sitting at the 17, and my expectation of a retrace into 29, where the daily bullish fair value gap was forming, then a reaction to the upside.
Here is what actually happened.
The result
Thursday dropped. But it did not stop at 29. It went deeper, to the 11, and reacted from there. Friday continued to the upside, exactly the reaction I was waiting for, just from a different level.
I was wrong on the number, right on the direction
I will not dress this up. My analysis said 29. Price said 11.
And this is the part worth learning from: 17 can go to 29, and 17 can also go to 11. The path had two doors, and I only named one of them. Price picked the deeper one.
But look at what the process still delivered. The bullish bias was right. The expansion came. The retrace came. The reaction to the upside came. Everything played out in the right order, one level deeper than I drew it. That is the difference between a process and a prediction: a prediction dies when one number is off, a process tells you what to do when it happens.
Next time the map has two doors, I will name both, and what would tell us which one price picks. That is me improving my own process in public, which is the whole point of this site.
The Discord filled fast
One more thing. The read only Discord I opened this week is already close to one hundred traders. If you are not in yet, this is where every analysis lands the moment it goes live.
Talk soon,
Salim
Everything on this site is educational content, not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk. This is my personal analysis of my own charts, not a recommendation to take any trade.